So How Does This Loyola "Thing" Happen?

They were picked to finish 10th in the Horizon League preseason men's basketball poll, which is voted upon by the league's coaches, sports information directors, and associated media members.

Personally, I had them one spot higher. All the way up in 9th.

Regardless, the "thing" I'm referring to is the Loyola men's basketball team's current 5-2 (1-1) record. And while I'm by no means ready to crown 'em, it's hard to ignore the way they've jumped out of the gates to start the season.

But how does something like this happen? When a team is almost unanimously thought of as one of the worst two teams in the Horizon League...how can they surprise virtually everyone and win five of their first seven games?

It's true...they've played a schedule that pales in comparison to what some of the other teams around the league are up against...but right now the Ramblers are winning more than they are losing, and for most that's what it's all about.

Informational Tangent Alert: When on the hunt for evidence in these situations, standard box scores just don't cut it. You've gotta peruse the tempo-free statistics. What are tempo-free stats, you say? Try things like Defensive Efficiency, Points Per Possession, and Turnover Rate. You can get a good explanation of how tempo-free stats "work" by clicking this link. And for the record, "Big Ten Wonk" is no longer operating (which is unfortunate), but you can find John Gasaway's work on Basketball Prospectus, if you didn't already know that.

Loyola isn't a team with a signature win. Frankly, they've really only had one shot at that (@ Kansas State), and it didn't go so well. Beyond that, however, each of their wins are against teams picked to finish in the top half of their respective conferences (Canisius, Holy Cross, Western Michigan, and Milwaukee) and they have one Non-Division I victory this season. Either way, they're currently exceeding what was expected of them.

In their two losses this season, against Kansas State and Green Bay, the Ramblers have had more than 79 offensive possessions...which means they're playing at a very fast pace. Is it superior competition dictating tempo? Or, is it a young squad that sometimes loses focus? In my opinion, it's probably a little of both. On the other side of the coin, in Loyola's five victories they've kept their number of offensive possessions below 70. That's not a "slow" pace, but rather, a very moderate tempo. If you ask me, pace plays a large factor in the Ramblers' success.

Loyola is also doing a great job cleaning the glass. Currently, they have a Rebound Percentage (measuring the percentage of opponents' missed shots which Loyola gets the rebound) of 56.1% That's a phenomenal number, as last year Pittsburgh led the nation in this category at 58%. Also, it's easy to see that they're sharing the basketball in Rogers Park. Loyola's Assisted Basket Percentage (measuring the amount of field goals which are assisted) is right at 61%. Again, using last year's numbers, the national average was about 54%.

So, let's think about this for a moment. They're allowing only a few second chance opportunities each game, and they're moving the ball incredibly well on offense. Put these two stats together and it starts to make sense why this team is shooting over 40% (37th nationally) from the three point line. Players are getting wide open looks, they have extra opportunities due to their rebounding numbers, and they're making the most of it.

It's always risky business when success is predicated on 3-point shooting. But, even though Loyola is scoring a lot of points from behind the arc, they appear to be doing enough in other places to continue winning more games than they lose. Yes, they will be playing some better competition once Horizon League play starts, but so long as they keep rebounding this well and continually sharing the basketball, they'll finish well above 9th in the Horizon League.

Adam and I discussed the Ramblers, along with several other men's basketball teams in the latest episode (Dec. 8) of Two Sense.