There are three phases every mid-major fan goes through when pairings are announced. The first is ‘wow we have no chance.' The second phase is ‘alright, these guys aren't so good, we can beat them.' The third phase typically happens day of game or shortly before and it's the feeling that ‘we can win this game.' I've officially entered the third phase for the Butler-Syracuse game and here's why.
Syracuse Depth
The first reason to have hope is Syracuse's short bench. Starting center Arinze Onuaku is officially out and that significantly squeezes an already thin Syracuse frontcourt. If Kris Joseph or Rick Jackson get in foul trouble coach Boeheim has shown some confidence in DaShonte Riley, a 7-0 big man, as his next big off the bench. Riley isn't much of an offensive threat but is a presence in the middle of the Orange 2-3 zone and that probably means more against a team like Butler than it would be against a team like West Virginia. There might not be a bigger mark against the Syracuse bench than the fact that Wesley Johnson played 40 minutes in a blowout against Gonzaga in the second round. When's the last time a guy played 40 minutes for the winning team in a 30-point game?
Defensive Rebounding
The Orange are a top-25 offensive rebounding team but rank 133rd in the nation in total rebound percentage. They simply don't rebound the ball on the defensive end well. Butler is a solid, not spectacular, defensive rebounding team and will need to hold Syracuse to ‘one and done' to keep the game at their pace. Syracuse likes to get up and down and fills the lanes very well out of their zone defense. I really like what my colleague Damon Lewis said on Two Sense, Butler may give up a few runouts because they'll be crashing the glass to get some offensive rebounds.
Spreading the Floor
The three-point line has been talked about ad nauseam but it really can't be ignored. Butler shoots a ton of threes and Syracuse gives up a ton of 3-point attempts. The Orange defend the line much better than they're given credit for, 30% good for 25th best in the country. Butler's biggest asset isn't purely their ability to knock down threes, it's that they can put four guys on the court that can all knock one down. Recognition of shooters was mentioned by the Syracuse players in their press conference today and it will be paramount to their defensive success Thursday night. Without a specific assignment, guys like Shelvin Mack could get lost or Ron Nored could be confused for a shooter.
Please don't confuse any of these arguments for anything other than one man's opinion on some of Butler's advantages in this game. Syracuse is an incredible team and they play a very aesthetically pleasing brand of basketball. They are exceptional at both ends of the floor and Wesley Johnson is an All-American. (Stephen A. Smith voice) HOWEVAH... Once the game starts nobody's NBA future matters, coaching victory totals don't matter, conference affiliation doesn't matter, only the score matters. I think the final score could surprise a few people...
