With the 2009-10 Horizon League basketball season now officially behind us, let's take a look ahead to next year.
Top Storylines of 2010-11
Will Brad Stevens and Gordon Hayward stay or go?
These are questions we're not used to asking. Brad Stevens, whether he stays at Butler or not, will have to fight off rumors of interest from every big-name school each offseason. He has proven himself as a great leader of men and has really opened up to the media in the last three weeks. He is the (baby) face of the program and replacing him won't be as easy as some national reporters are letting on.
Hayward has a big decision for the future of his life but his decision is also huge for the future of the Horizon League. The defending HL player of the year gives Butler a mismatch against almost every team in the country. If he comes back and improves as much in the next year as he did in the last he will be the hands-down favorite for preseason player of the year. Without Hayward, Butler becomes much easier to defend and they lose a lot of length and one of their better post defenders.
Detroit's incoming recruiting class
Coach Ray McCallum has a nice recruiting class coming to Detroit next year but everyone is waiting for the last domino to fall. If Coach McCallum can convince a certain five-star McDonald's All-American from his own house to commit to UDM, Detroit immediately becomes the number two in the HL to Butler. As currently constituted, Detroit is a top 3 or 4 team in the league and should cause a lot of problems for smaller frontlines.
Green Bay's coaching vacancy
Who is going to replace Tod Kowalczyk in Green Bay? The Phoenix have been consistent contenders for several years now but could never breakthrough in the conference tournament with coach Kowalczyk. They'll most likely turn the program over to an in-state coach and hope that they can continue to find good Wisconsin players (Cotton, Perine) and mix that in with some solid out-of-state guys (Fletcher).
Milwaukee's momentum
Coach Jeter's Panthers showed up at the end of the year and they have some intriguing pieces coming back. Coach Jeter would love to continue to get good production from his solid frontcourt and Anthony Hill is the centerpiece. How will Hill react to more attention from other teams? Will Ja'Rob McCallum coexist on the court with Tone Boyle's similar style? And who is going to play the point? All of these are legit questions that will need to be answered if Milwaukee is going to stay in the top 4 in the Horizon League.
Wright State's frontcourt
Cooper Land and Paul Darkwa are the only returnees at the forward position for the Raiders right now. No matter how you look at it, that's not a good thing. Scott Grote would give them a little more size and definitely some experience but not overwhelming production. Duggins/Evans/Offutt is a nice backcourt but somebody's going to have to rebound and defend the paint. Right now they don't have enough quality big men for this team to stay in the top 3 of the HL.
Valpo's turn?
Gone is Brandon McPherson and...well that's it. Everybody else is back for a team that finished 10-8 in league play. McPherson's big heart couldn't make up for his lack of foot speed at times. Valpo is going to want to push the tempo and they may have found a better fit at point guard for next year. The Crusaders' ability to push tempo will determine how far they go this season. Valpo has a high ceiling in 2010-11 and should be improved. They'll need to force some turnovers to offset their awful halfcourt defense. If they do that, look for the Crusaders to be in the mix for the double bye in the second half of next season.
Early Predictions
Player of the Year
Gordon Hayward or Shelvin Mack
Defensive Player of the Year
Ron Nored
All-League First Team
Gordon Hayward
Shelvin Mack
Matt Howard
Eli Holman
Rahmon Fletcher
Some of these predictions will change from now until October. With a few open scholarships still available, rosters will look different than they do now. I'm expecting a JUCO point guard to sign with Milwaukee and a JUCO big man to sign with Wright State. The quality of those players could shape the top half of the league.
With no inside knowledge, here are my predictions for league standings next year. I'm assuming Stevens and Hayward come back and Detroit/Valpo secure some current interested/verbally committed players.
1. Butler
2. Detroit
3. Valpo
4. Cleveland State
5. Milwaukee
6. Green Bay
7. Wright State
8. Loyola
9. UIC
10. Youngstown State
As always, tweet @HLNAdam if you agree/disagree.
