The Race for Second Place

With Butler putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the league, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the teams vying for the important number two seed in the Speedway Horizon League tournament. I've assigned a percentage chance that each team has to get the bye to the semifinal round of the HL tournament.

Green Bay

The Phoenix hosts Butler tonight then hosts Valparaiso on Sunday. This is an especially tough weekend for Green Bay because they're toward the bottom of the league in adjusted defensive efficiency while Butler and Valpo are the top two teams in the league in adjusted offensive efficiency. That means if the Phoenix want to stay in second place they're going to need to guard. Rahmon Fletcher has been much better at home of late (1 game in double figures in his last 5 games) and coach Kowalczyk needs him to play well to get a chance to beat the Bulldogs for a second straight time.

The Phoenix still have the tough Detroit-Wright State road trip against two teams looking for revenge after close losses at the Resch. I want to believe in this team and its veteran backcourt but I'm hesitant because of their defensive lapses and Fletcher's streaky play. They have a one-game lead right now but they'll be underdogs on their home floor tonight. Right now I'll give them a 30% chance of getting the two seed.

Wright State

Just finished watching the Raiders practice at the Nutter Center and coach Brownell really stands out as a teacher and leader. Leader...that word has been used a lot around the WSU program over the past few weeks. Junior Vaughn Duggins was really emotional in their game against UIC and he may be ready to answer the call as the leader of this Wright State team. Duggins has the ability to be ‘the guy' for a team that plays a lot of close games. If he can take his game to that next level I would call Wright State the leaders for the coveted number two seed. Duggins hasn't led this team anywhere yet so I'll give them the same 30% chance I gave Green Bay.

Detroit

I think the Titans have the best chance of any team in the Horizon League to beat Butler in Hinkle Fieldhouse. So why would I give them only a 20% chance of getting the number two seed? Consistency. This team lost to UIC. Think about that. The Titans still have serious assist/turnover problems and need better point guard play to make a run in the tournament.

Still, this is the number 1 FG% offense and number 1 FG% defense in the Horizon League. They have the most imposing defensive interior in the league and Chase Simon is a rising star. Simon had his second 30-point game of the season last night against Loyola and is exactly what Detroit needed. He allows Woody Payne to be a distributer and defender, he allows Thomas Kennedy to play off the ball and get open jumpers, and he gives Eli Holman more space to operate down low. Detroit has four league losses by a total of 10 points. Three of those losses are to Butler, Green Bay, and Wright State. If I were coach Stevens I'd be rooting for Detroit to get that number 3 seed to avoid them until the Horizon League Championship.

Valpo

Look out! Here come the Crusaders. Four straight wins and Valpo is trying to sneak into this race. We know they can score, they lead the league in 3-pt FG% and Points Per Weighted Shot. PPWS is a handy stat that factors in all FG and FT attempts and measures the effectiveness of turning those attempts into points. Basically, Valpo converts FG and FT attempts into points better than anybody in the league.

Can they defend enough to have a realistic shot at this thing? I want to believe they can but their four wins have been against some of the worst offensive teams in the league. They need to make noise in Wisconsin because Wright State and Detroit loom next week. This team is gaining confidence but I can only give them a 7.5% chance of making an improbable run to second place.

Cleveland State

The last time I saw the Vikings in person they lost to Valpo. Coach Waters and co. bounced back at home with a Wisconsin sweep and now have three winnable games in a row to put pressure on the other teams in the hunt. They turned over Milwaukee 17 times and locked down the perimeter against the Phoenix (1-8 from 3) and got just enough offense from Norris Cole to pull out two "must" wins.

Their defensive numbers are still pretty average and they're not an offensive juggernaut by any means. One thing to remember is that Cleveland State played an incredibly tough schedule so they're not afraid of anybody. You need to score to win though, and this team doesn't have enough firepower. 7.5% chance.

The Field

This is my way of making sure Milwaukee and Loyola are given a puncher's chance at the two seed. The Panthers could be one game back by the end of the night. Ricky Franklin is the main reason why. Franklin has 20+ in three of his last four games and would have been the hero in the Cleveland State game if not for Norris Cole.

Loyola is competitive, if nothing else. Coach Whitesell has done a nice job with this Rambler team and deserves some more ink for it. They have a much better chance of playing spoiler than actually making noise but crazier things have happened. I give the field 5%

I hope that adds up to 100%.

This year is a good example of why the bye to the semifinal round can be pro-parity. Seven teams (including Butler) have a realistic chance to get a bye. 70% of this league has the opportunity to put themselves in a position to win two games and get an automatic bid in the NCAA Tournament. This scenario likely means a game against Butler in Indianapolis. Tough? Yes. Impossible? Nope.