Not even halfway through Horizon League play, the Butler Bulldogs hold a two game loss-column lead over over their closest competitors: Detroit, Wright State, Green Bay and Cleveland State. Could it be? It's only January 11th, and the race for the Horizon League Men's Basketball regular season title is over?
No, it's not. But, it's definitely trending in the wrong direction for everyone except the Bulldogs.
This past weekend was absolutely huge for Butler. They managed to navigate what appears to be the toughest road trip for every team in the League this season, at Wright State and at Detroit, unblemished. Their performance Friday night against the Raiders was as close to "classic Butler" as they've been all year. In the 77-65 victory, the Bulldogs shot 8-of-16 from the field, converted 23-of-24 attempts from the free throw line, out-rebounded the Raiders 26-18, and out-assisted WSU 15-9. A stronger defensive effort, and fewer turnovers would have made the score pretty lopsided. But, you can't argue with what they did on the offensive end of the court.
Sunday afternoon, Butler entered Calihan Hall knowing they had an opportunity to put a two game gap between themselves and the rest of the field, and they delivered. That's not an easy task for several reasons, but here are a couple:
1. Detroit is probably the most difficult physical match-up for Butler in the Horizon League.
2. They were on the road, playing in front of 4,500 rabid Titans fans, easily Detroit's biggest crowd of the season.
3. The Titans were not only playing to gain a share of the lead in the HL, but also to knock off a nationally-ranked opponent, something they hadn't done since 2002. Oddly, it was eight years to the day when Detroit had last beaten a ranked opponent. Their victim? Butler... who was also ranked #24 that day.
Despite the odds being seemingly stacked against Butler, they did just enough to pull out a 64-62 overtime victory. The Bulldogs shot poorly from the 3-point line and were out-rebounded handily, but Eli Holman's foul trouble proved costly for Detroit. Without his presence in the paint, the Titans struggled on both ends of the floor and ended up being out-scored in the paint 24-22. Detroit is physical, imposing, and intimidating, but being out-scored in the paint is the surest sign that Butler took advantage of Holman's foul trouble.
Now, all that said, this thing still isn't over.
Butler still has some flaws that are being exposed from time to time. They still turn the ball over a tad too much for their style, and defensively they have yet to put together a solid 40 minutes against a good opponent. After two home games this weekend against Cleveland State and Youngstown State, the Bulldogs will embark on their longest road trip of the season. They'll play four consecutive roadies from January 21 to January 31 (@ Loyola, @ UIC, @ Green Bay, @ Milwaukee). Keep in mind, Butler lost both their games in Wisconsin last year... and they weren't even in the same road trip.
It will be interesting to see how Detroit, Wright State, and Green Bay fare this week. The Titans and Raiders are making the Wisconsin swing this weekend, so Green Bay gets ‘em both on their home floor. The Phoenix, given the two home games, really need to take care of business this weekend. Maybe more so due to the fact that they were blown out in Milwaukee last weekend, 71-51. Even at this early stage, with each of these teams having a two game deficit to make up, any loss is going to be a crushing blow to their hopes for the top-seed in the Horizon League Tournament. And... don't forget about Cleveland State either. It would appear that murderous non-conference schedule might be paying some dividends, and I can't wait to see them Saturday afternoon in Valparaiso for our Horizon League Network Game of the Week.
Like I said, this isn't over... but there's little room for error.
